Recommendation: Speculative Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug, 25 | VSAT | Speculative Buy | USD 29.11 | USD 31.2 | USD 34.0 | 1 day | Closed |
7.35%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Viasat, Inc. provides broadband and communications products and services worldwide. The company's Satellite Services segment offers satellite-based fixed broadband services, including broadband internet access and voice over internet protocol services to consumers and businesses; in-flight entertainment and aviation software services to commercial airlines and private business jets; satellite-based connectivity services; mobile broadband services, including satellite-based internet services to energy offshore vessels, cruise ships, consumer ferries, and yachts; and energy services, which include ultra-secure solutions IP connectivity, bandwidth-optimized over-the-top applications, industrial internet-of-things big data enablement, and industry-leading machine learning analytics. Its Commercial Networks segment offers fixed broadband satellite communication systems comprising satellite network infrastructure and ground terminals; mobile broadband satellite communication systems; antenna systems for terrestrial and satellite applications, such as earth imaging, remote sensing, mobile satellite communication, Ka-band earth stations, and other multi-band antennas; and space systems design and satellite networking development systems. The company's Government Systems segment offers government mobile broadband products and services include mobile broadband modems, and terminals and network access control systems; mesh and hub-and-spoke satellite networking systems; secure networking, cybersecurity, and information assurance products; and tactical data link solutions. It designs and development of satellite and ground communications systems and network function virtualization, as well as ground-based network subsystems, as well as space system design and development products and services include architectures for GEO, MEO, LEO satellites, and other satellite platforms. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.
Strong Free Cash Flow Improvement: Free cash flow improved by USD 210 million YoY, turning positive at USD 60 million compared to negative USD 150 million in Q1 FY2025
Revenue Growth: Revenue increased 4% YoY to USD 1.17 billion (Q1 FY2026 vs. USD 1.13 billion Q1 FY2025)
Decline in Communication Services Awards: Communication Services awards fell 7% YoY to USD 754 million, reflecting declines in fixed broadband and government satcom
Widening Net Loss: Net loss widened to USD 56 million in Q1 FY2026, compared with a net loss of USD 33 million in Q1 FY2025
Viasat’s key investment risk lies in the successful deployment and timely activation of its ViaSat-3 satellites, as any launch delays, technical failures, or cost overruns could materially impact revenue growth, free cash flow generation, and competitive positioning
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.11 | 26.2 | 31.2 | 34.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Revenue and Profitability Overview: In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Viasat reported revenue of USD 1.17 billion, representing a 4% year-over-year increase from USD 1.13 billion in the prior year period. The growth was primarily driven by a 15% increase in the Defense and Advanced Technologies (DAT) segment, while Communication Services (CS) revenues remained flat. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 1% year-over-year to USD 408 million, supported by strong performances in aviation and cyber defense, partially offset by lower IP licensing and declines in maritime services.
Segmental Performance: The Communication Services segment achieved USD 827 million in revenues, unchanged from the prior year. Growth in aviation services (+14%) and government satcom (+4%) was offset by declines in fixed broadband (-13%) and maritime (-5%), as well as lower product revenues following the divestiture of the Energy Services Systems Integration business. The segment’s Adjusted EBITDA improved by 5% to USD 322 million, driven by stronger aviation performance and reduced R&D costs.
In contrast, the Defense and Advanced Technologies segment delivered USD 344 million in revenues, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase. This growth was fueled by an 84% increase in information security and cyber defense revenues and a 20% rise in space and mission systems. However, Adjusted EBITDA declined 10% to USD 87 million, reflecting weaker IP licensing and higher R&D expenditures for next-generation encryption products.
Awards and Backlog: Total awards for Q1 FY2026 were USD 1.18 billion, a 2% increase from the prior year. DAT awards surged 22% year-over-year, supported by substantial demand for cyber defense solutions, while CS awards declined 7% due to weakness in fixed broadband and the impact of divestitures. Backlog closed at USD 3.55 billion, representing a 2% decline year-over-year, largely due to the removal of the Energy Services Systems Integration backlog and declines in U.S. fixed broadband.
Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure: Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching USD 258 million compared to USD 151 million in the prior year, driven by working capital improvements. Capital expenditure declined 34% year-over-year to USD 198 million, largely reflecting lower satellite-related payments. Free cash flow turned positive at USD 60 million, an improvement of USD 210 million compared to Q1 FY2025. For the twelve months ending June 30, 2025, free cash flow amounted to USD 88 million.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity: At the end of Q1 FY2026, Viasat had total liquidity of USD 2.3 billion, comprising USD 1.2 billion in cash and USD 1.1 billion in available borrowing under undrawn credit facilities. Gross debt decreased to USD 6.7 billion from USD 7.5 billion in the prior year. Net debt remained relatively stable at USD 5.6 billion, with net debt-to-LTM Adjusted EBITDA flat on a sequential basis. During the quarter, the company redeemed USD 442.6 million of senior notes due 2025, thereby reducing near-term refinancing risk.
Strategic and Operational Updates: Operationally, Viasat advanced its multi-orbit offerings by securing agreements with LATAM Group and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines for aviation and maritime connectivity solutions, respectively. The company highlighted ongoing progress on its ViaSat-3 satellite program, with F2 expected to ship to the launch site in September 2025 and F3 undergoing qualification testing. Management emphasized its commitment to integrating Inmarsat operations, reducing capital intensity, and positioning FY2026 as a launch year for sustained growth and improved free cash flow.
Technical Commentary:
VSAT's stock price is making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a potential upward move in the near term. The 14-period RSI is crossing above the neutral level, strengthening the bullish outlook. Additionally, the stock has reclaimed its 50-period moving average, further supporting a positive bias. Overall, these technical signals suggest a greater likelihood of an upward trend, provided the price stays above these important support levels.
As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating has been given to ViaSat, Inc. (NASDAQ: VSAT) at its current market price of USD 29.11 as of Aug 26, 2025 (7:10 am PDT).
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Technology Industry: Communication Equipment
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSAT ViaSat Inc |
-1.81 5.26% | 32.59 | - | - | 0.54 | 0.40 | 2.14 | 86.80 |
| CSCO Cisco Systems Inc |
-1.365 1.76% | 76.19 | 15.64 | 12.80 | 3.43 | 4.25 | 3.19 | 10.03 |
| MSI Motorola Solutions Inc |
11.29 3.10% | 375.12 | 31.36 | 23.98 | 5.22 | 141.85 | 5.79 | 20.98 |
| HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co |
-0.375 1.54% | 23.93 | 10.92 | 8.74 | 0.74 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 5.92 |
| ERIXF Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson Class B |
- -% | 9.50 | - | 11.38 | 0.07 | 1.95 | 0.07 | 0.74 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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