Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug, 25 | CRCL | Buy | USD 155.85 | USD 164.0 | USD 173.0 | 6 days | Closed |
21.88%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
USDC Circulation Expansion: USDC in circulation reached USD 60.0 billion by March 31, 2025, reflecting a 29% stablecoin market share
Growing User Adoption: Meaningful Wallets (MeWs) rose to 4.88 million by Q1 2025, indicating broad adoption of USDC across digital asset wallets
Rising Distribution Costs: Distribution and transaction costs jumped 71.3% to USD 347.6 million in Q1 2025, driven by increased Coinbase payments
Declining Reserve Return Rate: Reserve return rate fell from 5.1% in Q1 2024 to 4.2% in Q1 2025, potentially impacting reserve income
Revenue Sensitivity to Interest Rate Fluctuations, Regulatory Uncertainty and Compliance Costs, High Distribution Costs and Partner Dependency
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155.85 | 143.0 | 164.0 | 173.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Financial Performance Overview: Circle’s revenue for Q1 2025 surged 58.5% to USD 578.6 million, driven by a 93% increase in USDC circulation, though net income grew 33.2% to USD 64.8 million due to a 71.3% rise in distribution costs to USD 347.6 million, mainly from Coinbase payments. Reserve income rose 55.1% to USD 557.9 million, tempered by a 97-basis-point drop in reserve return rates.
Annual Financial Trends: In 2024, Circle’s revenue increased 15.6% to USD 1.7 billion, fueled by a 9% rise in USDC circulation and higher reserve return rates, but net income fell 42.2% to USD 157.0 million due to a 40.4% increase in distribution costs to USD 1.0 billion, including a USD 60.25 million Binance fee. Other revenue dropped 23.6% to USD 15.2 million after discontinuing legacy services.
Key Financial Drivers: USDC circulation, reaching USD 60.0 billion by Q1 2025 with a 29% market share, drives Circle’s reserve income, sensitive to Federal Reserve rate changes. Strategic partnerships with Coinbase, Visa, and Binance boost adoption but raise distribution costs, with Coinbase’s platform share at 25% in Q1 2025. New products like Developer Services and USYC are set to diversify revenue.
Financial Position and Risks: Circle’s financial position strengthened, with stablecoin holder cash rising 36.9% to USD 60.1 billion and equity growing 30.6% to USD 745.0 million in Q1 2025, driven by net income and the Hashnote acquisition. Risks include interest rate declines (4.2% in Q1 2025) and events like the 2023 SVB failure, mitigated by robust reserve management.
Circle’s 93% USDC circulation growth to USD 54.1 billion, 58.5% revenue rise to USD 578.6 million, USD 64.8 million net income, strategic partnerships with major players like Coinbase, Visa, and Binance, alongside a 29% stablecoin market share, and the Hashnote acquisition, a "Buy" recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of USD 155.85, as of August 06, 2025, at 08:40 am PDT.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Industry:
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc. |
-1.605 1.93% | 81.39 | - | - | - | - |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is August 06, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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