Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul, 25 | MNSO | Buy | USD 18.58 | USD 19.51 | USD 20.62 | 41 days | Closed |
11.36%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of lifestyle products and pop toy products in China, rest of Asia, the Americas, Europe, Indonesia, and internationally. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO brand; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. It also engages in the brand licensing activity. The company also operates characters themed store in Vietnam. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
Store Expansion: Total store count rose by 978 YoY, with 617 new stores in overseas markets, reflecting strong global expansion momentum
Revenue Growth: Revenue increased by 18.9% YoY to RMB4,427.0 million, driven by growth in both domestic and international markets
Margin Compression: Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased from 25.9% to 23.4%, while adjusted net margin declined from 16.6% to 13.3%, indicating pressure on profitability despite revenue growth
Decline in Net Profit: Net profit fell to RMB416.5 million from RMB586.0 million YoY due to increased finance and derivative-related expenses
MINISO's rapid expansion and increased reliance on overseas operations expose the company to elevated operating and financing costs, foreign exchange volatility, and execution risks in unfamiliar markets, which could weigh on future profitability
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.58 | 17.09 | 19.51 | 20.62 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Strong Revenue Growth and Store Expansion: MINISO Group Holding Limited reported a robust 18.9% year-over-year revenue growth for the March Quarter 2025, reaching RMB4,427.0 million (US$610.1 million). This growth was primarily driven by a 16.5% year-over-year increase in average store count, reflecting the success of its aggressive expansion strategy. The number of stores on a group level rose by 978 year-over-year to 7,768, with 70% of net new MINISO stores established in overseas markets. The MINISO brand revenue grew 16.5% to RMB4,085.8 million, including a 9.1% increase in mainland China and a 30.3% rise in overseas markets.
Improving Profitability and Operational Efficiency: Gross profit rose by 21.1% year-over-year to RMB1,958.0 million (US$269.8 million), with gross margin expanding by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2%, the highest level ever recorded for a March Quarter. This margin improvement was mainly attributable to a favorable sales mix, particularly the growing contribution from overseas MINISO stores and the high-margin TOP TOY segment, which saw a 58.9% revenue increase. Adjusted EBITDA increased 7.5% to RMB1,037.3 million (US$142.9 million), although the adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed to 23.4% from 25.9% due to higher operating costs.
Increased Investments Impact Operating Profit: While operating profit remained strong at RMB709.8 million (US$97.8 million), it declined slightly from RMB743.3 million in the same quarter last year. The decline reflects increased selling and distribution expenses, which surged 46.7% year-over-year to RMB1,021.2 million due to investments in directly operated stores, especially overseas. Logistics, rental, and staffing costs rose in tandem with revenue from these stores, which grew by 85.5% year-over-year. General and administrative expenses also increased by 26.6%, consistent with the company's continued expansion.
Impact of Financing Costs and Derivatives on Net Profit: The company reported net profit of RMB416.5 million (US$57.4 million), a decline from RMB586.0 million in the same period last year. This reduction was largely due to finance and other expenses associated with the issuance of equity-linked securities and bank loans for acquiring an equity stake in Yonghui Superstores. Adjusted net profit, which excludes these costs, stood at RMB587.2 million (US$80.9 million), compared to RMB616.9 million in the prior-year quarter, resulting in a reduced adjusted net margin of 13.3%, down from 16.6%.
Store Network Strengthens Global Presence: The global store network continued to expand, with the number of MINISO stores reaching 7,488 by the end of March 2025, including 3,213 stores overseas—a net addition of 617 stores year-over-year. Notably, directly operated stores overseas more than doubled to 548. The company also increased its TOP TOY store count by 120 to 280, as it began international expansion for the brand. This strategic growth reinforces MINISO’s global footprint and contributes to improved brand equity and diversified revenue streams.
Solid Cash Position and Shareholder Returns: MINISO maintained a strong cash position of RMB7,255.3 million (US$999.8 million) as of March 31, 2025, up from RMB6,698.1 million at the end of 2024. The company returned approximately RMB986.9 million to shareholders year-to-date, including US$101.4 million in dividends distributed in April and RMB255.7 million through share repurchases. This reflects the company’s commitment to shareholder value, balanced with disciplined financial management and long-term strategic investments.
Technical Observation (on the daily chart):
MNSO’s stock price has established support at crucial levels and is steadily climbing, suggesting early signs of a possible upward trend in the near future. The 14-period RSI is beginning to rise, indicating increasing buying momentum at current levels. Moreover, the stock is close to reclaiming its 450-period Simple Moving Average, further strengthening the prospects for near-term price stability.
As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Buy’ rating has been given to MINISO Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: MNSO) at its current market price of USD 18.58 as of July 7, 2025 (7:35 am PDT).
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Specialty Retail
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNSO Miniso Group Holding Ltd |
-0.0305 0.15% | 20.18 | 24.03 | 24.69 | 0.55 | 5.67 | 3.57 | 16.33 |
| ORLY O’Reilly Automotive Inc |
0.12 0.13% | 93.02 | 25.08 | 25.45 | 4.02 | 210.18 | 4.50 | 19.67 |
| ANCTF Alimentation Couchen Tard Inc A |
-0.35 0.66% | 52.57 | 21.36 | 19.46 | 0.76 | 3.91 | 0.92 | 11.48 |
| AZO AutoZone Inc |
-12.02 0.35% | 3405.40 | 20.58 | 19.49 | 2.87 | 13.38 | 3.52 | 14.93 |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company |
0.94 1.78% | 53.58 | 27.47 | 23.81 | 1.82 | 12.29 | 2.13 | 16.60 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is of July 7, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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