Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec, 25 | NRG | Buy | USD 166.75 | USD 175.0 | USD 185.0 | 7 days | Closed |
10.58%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated power company in the United States. It operates through Texas, East, and West segments. The company is involved in producing and selling electricity and related products and services to approximately residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers. It generates electricity using natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage. The company also provides system power, distributed generation, renewable products, backup generation, storage and distributed solar, demand response, and energy efficiency and advisory services, as well as carbon management and specialty services. In addition, it trades in electric power, natural gas, and related commodities; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Further, the company procures fuels; and sells energy, services, and products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, Stream, and XOOM Energy. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Adjusted EPS Growth: Adjusted EPS increased from USD 2.10 (Q3 FY24) to USD 2.78 (Q3 FY25), representing a growth of 32%
Texas Segment Profitability: Texas segment Adjusted EBITDA rose from USD 584 million (Q3 FY24) to USD 807 million (Q3 FY25), reflecting an improvement of USD 223 million
East Segment Decline: East segment Adjusted EBITDA declined from USD 164 million (Q3 FY24) to USD 107 million (Q3 FY25), a reduction of USD 57 million
West/Services/Other Decline: West/Services/Other Adjusted EBITDA decreased from USD 50 million (Q3 FY24) to USD 19 million (Q3 FY25), falling by USD 31 million
NRG faces material integration and execution risk associated with the pending LS Power acquisition, including regulatory approvals, financing, and the ability to realize expected synergies within planned timelines
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166.75 | 150.0 | 175.0 | 185.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Strong Financial Momentum in Q3 FY25: NRG Energy delivered a robust third quarter with increases across all major non-GAAP financial indicators. Adjusted EBITDA reached USD 1.205 billion, representing a 14% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EPS rose by 32% to USD 2.78. These gains reflected improved operating execution and disciplined commercial practices.
Improved Profitability and Cash Generation: For the period, Adjusted Net Income increased to USD 537 million, up from USD 434 million in Q3 FY24, driven largely by enhanced margins and supply optimization initiatives in core markets. Free Cash Flow before Growth remained strong at USD 828 million, supported by higher earnings and favorable working-capital timing.
Segmental Performance Led by Texas: Segment results highlighted significant improvement in the Texas market, where Adjusted EBITDA advanced to USD 807 million compared with USD 584 million in Q3 FY24, primarily due to lower realized supply costs and improved generation margins. Other regions recorded mixed outcomes, influenced by higher supply costs and past divestitures.
Continued Expansion of Smart Home Platform: The Smart Home segment sustained its growth trajectory, reporting USD 272 million of Adjusted EBITDA against USD 257 million in the prior-year quarter, supported by strong customer additions and high retention levels. The business continues to deliver increasing recurring service revenues.
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns: NRG reaffirmed its intent to return capital through share repurchases and dividends. Through October 2025, the company completed USD 1.1 billion in buybacks and declared quarterly dividends consistent with its long-term dividend growth commitment. The company also announced a USD 3 billion repurchase authorization to 2028.
Strategic Growth Initiatives: The company expanded long-term power agreements to 445 MW for data centers and advanced low-cost Texas Energy Fund (TEF) projects, with financing already secured for key facilities. These initiatives enhance long-term contracted earnings visibility and support rising load growth.
Guidance and Forward Outlook: Management reaffirmed its raised FY25 guidance, reflecting continuing operational strength, while also introducing standalone FY26 guidance aligned with long-term growth targets. The upcoming LS Power acquisition is expected to further strengthen scale and earnings when finalized in early FY26.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on NRG Energy, Inc (NYSE: NRG) at the closing market price of USD 166.75, as on Dec 09, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Utilities Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG NRG Energy Inc. |
1.89 1.26% | 151.00 | - | 7.33 | 0.37 | 3.89 | 0.78 | -44.8887 |
| UNPRF Uniper SE |
- -% | 42.00 | 0.05 | 4.91 | 0.28 | 2.51 | 0.17 | 0.52 |
| CGNWF CGN Power Co. Ltd |
- -% | 0.35 | 6.67 | 6.33 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 1.26 |
| HUNGF Huaneng Power International Inc |
0.001 0.14% | 0.72 | 8.83 | 14.03 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 2.53 |
| VST Vistra Energy Corp |
-1.28 0.83% | 152.98 | 11.25 | 9.48 | 0.87 | 3.84 | 1.69 | 6.07 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on December 10, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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