Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec, 25 | ERO | Buy | USD 25.95 | USD 27.5 | USD 29.0 | 18 days | Closed |
11.79%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in northeastern Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Strong Year-over-Year Growth in Consolidated EBITDA: Consolidated EBITDA increased from USD 74.5 million in Q3 FY24 to USD 90.8 million in Q3 FY25, representing a year-over-year increase of USD 16.3 million
Significant Growth in Consolidated Revenues: Revenues increased from USD 124.8 million in Q3 FY24 to USD 177.1 million in Q3 FY25, representing a year-over-year increase of USD 52.3 million
Material Increase in C1 Cash Costs at Caraíba: C1 cash costs increased substantially from USD 1.63 per pound in Q3 FY24 to USD 2.32 per pound in Q3 FY25, an increase of USD 0.69 per pound, driven by lower grades and higher operating expenses
Decline in Copper Production at Caraíba: Copper output at Caraíba decreased from 9,920 tonnes in Q3 FY24 to 9,085 tonnes in Q3 FY25, representing a decline of 835 tonnes year-over-year
Ero Copper faces key investment risks related to rising operating costs, grade variability, execution risks associated with ramp-up and mechanization initiatives, and potential delays or cost overruns in development and exploration programs
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.95 | 23.0 | 27.5 | 29.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Record Operational Performance Across Copper and Gold Segments: Ero Copper Corp. delivered record consolidated copper production of 16,664 tonnes in Q3 2025, supported by strong operational performance at both the Caraíba and Tucumã operations. Caraíba contributed 9,085 tonnes of copper in concentrate, while Tucumã recorded a notable quarter-on-quarter increase of 19% to 7,579 tonnes as throughput and plant performance continued to improve. Gold production from the Xavantina Operations also rose 17% to 9,073 ounces, benefitting from higher grades and increased mining rates following the transition toward mechanized mining.
Financial Performance Strengthened by Higher Sales and Commodity Prices: The Company reported Q3 2025 revenues of USD 177.1 million, reflecting higher copper concentrate sales at Tucumã and improving copper and gold prices late in the quarter. Net income attributable to owners was USD 36.0 million, with adjusted net income of USD 27.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to USD 77.1 million, while available liquidity totaled USD 111.3 million, including USD 66.3 million in cash and cash equivalents.
Operational Advancements at Caraíba and Tucumã: Caraíba achieved record quarterly plant throughput of nearly one million tonnes, supported by enhanced mining rates and a successful multi-quarter mill debottlenecking initiative. However, lower planned grades resulted in a modest decline in copper output and higher C1 cash costs of USD 2.32 per pound. At Tucumã, mining operations exceeded 1.3 million tonnes of ore mined, while processing improvements drove materially higher production levels, though partially offset by lower planned grades and increased maintenance and freight costs.
Progress on Xavantina and Value-Creation Initiatives: The Xavantina Operations continued to advance mechanized mining, enabling a return to production rates last seen in mid-2022. During the quarter, Ero launched an initial sales agreement for long-stockpiled high-grade gold concentrates, with shipments commencing in October. The maiden inferred resource estimate of approximately 29,000 ounces of gold in concentrate underscores the potential to materially increase gold sales over the next 12–18 months.
Exploration Success and Advancement at the Furnas Copper-Gold Project: The Company completed the 28,000-metre Phase 1 drill program at the Furnas Project, with results confirming high-grade continuity and extending mineralization to approximately 950 meters down-dip—far beyond the current NI 43-101 resource base. Phase 2 drilling was completed ahead of schedule, and Phase 3 commenced with eight active rigs. These results will support an updated mineral resource estimate and subsequent preliminary economic assessment in H1 2026.
Capital Allocation and Updated Guidance: Ero reaffirmed its 2025 consolidated production and capital expenditure guidance, maintaining copper production expectations of 67,500 to 80,000 tonnes, with the strongest quarter anticipated in Q4 2025. Cost guidance for Caraíba and Xavantina remains unchanged, while Tucumã’s C1 cost guidance was revised upward to USD 1.35–1.55 per pound due to higher-than-expected maintenance and freight costs. Capital expenditures remain guided at USD 230–270 million for the full year.
Strategic Positioning for a Strong Fourth Quarter: Management emphasized that optimization efforts across all operations—mechanization at Xavantina, ramp-up at Tucumã, and debottlenecking at Caraíba—have positioned the Company for a robust finish to 2025. These initiatives, combined with ongoing exploration success, reinforce the Company’s focus on operational excellence, margin expansion, and long-term value creation.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE: ERO) at the closing market price of USD 25.95, as on Dec 11, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Copper
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERO Ero Copper Corp |
2.64 7.72% | 36.83 | 72.72 | 5.95 | 2.78 | 1.90 | 3.97 | 17.15 |
| SCCO Southern Copper Corporation |
22.79 11.82% | 215.59 | 23.55 | 50.25 | 6.18 | 8.31 | 6.64 | 12.17 |
| FCX Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc |
3.99 6.57% | 64.75 | 28.12 | 19.80 | 2.61 | 3.62 | 2.77 | 7.53 |
| ANFGF Antofagasta PLC |
2.43 4.90% | 52.03 | 30.01 | 21.88 | 3.61 | 2.47 | 3.54 | 6.52 |
| LUNMF Lundin Mining Corporation |
1.33 5.27% | 26.58 | 18.31 | 10.43 | 1.98 | 1.29 | 2.63 | 8.16 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on December 12, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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