Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec, 25 | FSM | Buy | USD 9.78 | USD 10.3 | USD 10.8 | 32 days | Closed |
10.49%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Fortuna Mining Corp. engages in the precious and base metal mining in Argentina, Burkina Faso, Mexico, Peru, and Côte d'Ivoire. It operates through Mansfield, Sanu, Sango, Cuzcatlan, Bateas, and Corporate segments. The company primarily explores for silver, lead, zinc, and gold. Its flagship project is the Séguéla gold mine, which consists of approximately 62,000 hectares and is located in the Worodougou Region of the Woroba District, Côte d'Ivoire. The company was formerly known as Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. and changed its name to Fortuna Mining Corp. in June 2024. Fortuna Mining Corp. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Significant Improvement in Free Cash Flow: Q3 FY2025 free cash flow from ongoing operations reached USD 73.4 million, more than doubling from USD 34.0 million in Q3 FY2024
Strong Revenue Expansion: Q3 FY2025 sales increased to USD 251.4 million, compared with USD 181.7 million in Q3 FY2024, reflecting a 38% year-on-year increase
Higher All-in Sustaining Costs: Q3 FY2025 consolidated AISC increased to USD 1,987 per GEO, compared with USD 1,638 per GEO in Q3 FY2024
Decline in Silver Production Volumes: Q3 FY2025 silver production declined to 233,612 ounces, versus 305,446 ounces in Q3 FY2024, representing a 24% year-on-year decrease
The company remains exposed to commodity price volatility and cost inflation, particularly through higher royalties and operating costs, which could compress margins if metal prices weaken from current elevated levels
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.78 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 10.8 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Revenue Growth and Pricing Environment: During Q3 FY2025, the company delivered a strong top-line performance, with consolidated sales rising to USD 251.4 million, representing a 38% year-on-year increase from USD 181.7 million in Q3 FY2024. This growth was primarily driven by materially higher realized precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, which more than offset lower volumes in certain base metals. The realized gold price increased sharply, enhancing revenue quality and margin resilience amid volatile operating conditions.
Operational Output and Production Mix: Operationally, the company produced 63,216 ounces of gold in Q3 FY2025, reflecting a 6% increase compared with Q3 FY2024, supported by steady performance at the Séguéla and Lindero mines. However, silver production declined to 233,612 ounces, down 24% year-on-year, largely due to lower grades and mine sequencing at Caylloma. Lead and zinc production also moderated, reflecting planned mine sequencing and metal mix optimization.
Cost Performance and Margin Dynamics: While revenue expanded significantly, consolidated all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose to USD 1,987 per gold equivalent ounce in Q3 FY2025, compared with USD 1,638 per GEO in Q3 FY2024. The increase was driven by higher royalties linked to elevated metal prices, increased stripping activity, and higher share-based compensation expenses. Despite cost inflation, operating margins remained robust due to strong pricing and operating leverage.
Profitability and Earnings Performance: Operating income increased sharply to USD 154.6 million in Q3 FY2025, up from USD 50.8 million in Q3 FY2024, reflecting both higher sales and the reversal of a prior impairment at the Lindero mine. Attributable net income from continuing operations rose to USD 123.6 million (USD 0.40 per share), compared with USD 35.5 million (USD 0.11 per share) in the prior-year quarter, underscoring the strength of earnings leverage in a favorable price environment.
Cash Flow Generation: Cash flow performance was notably strong, with net cash provided by operating activities increasing to USD 111.3 million in Q3 FY2025, representing a 65% year-on-year increase. Free cash flow from ongoing operations more than doubled to USD 73.4 million, compared with USD 34.0 million in Q3 FY2024, supported by higher margins and disciplined capital allocation.
Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity: The company exited the quarter with a solid financial position, reporting total liquidity of USD 588 million and a net cash position of USD 266 million, reflecting sustained free cash flow generation and prudent balance sheet management. This liquidity provides flexibility to fund growth initiatives, advance development projects, and absorb potential commodity price volatility.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Fortuna Mining Corp. (NYSE: FSM) at the current market price of USD 9.78, as on Dec 11, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Gold
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc |
0.41 4.13% | 10.21 | - | 51.55 | 1.69 | 1.14 | 1.86 | 6.77 |
| NEM Newmont Goldcorp Corp |
4.22 3.74% | 117.08 | - | 11.61 | 4.29 | 2.48 | 4.55 | 26.44 |
| ZIJMF Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H |
0.12 2.39% | 5.15 | 16.00 | 16.89 | 0.15 | 2.75 | 0.20 | 1.78 |
| ZIJMY Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd ADR |
3.99 3.88% | 106.95 | 15.04 | 17.39 | 0.15 | 2.83 | 0.20 | 1.78 |
| AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited |
5.86 3.07% | 196.68 | 42.69 | 15.65 | 5.47 | 2.04 | 5.49 | 12.90 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on December 12, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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