Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov, 25 | CF | Buy | USD 78.98 | USD 83.0 | USD 87.0 | 44 days | Closed |
5.09%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company's principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. It also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products. The company primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.
Strong Growth in Net Earnings: CF Industries delivered a significant improvement in profitability, with net earnings rising from USD 276 million in Q3 FY24 to USD 353 million in Q3 FY25, reflecting higher selling prices and improved market conditions
Higher Net Sales Driven by Pricing Strength: Net sales increased meaningfully from USD 1.37 billion in Q3 FY24 to USD 1.66 billion in Q3 FY25, supported by global nitrogen demand strength and price premiums linked to supply disruptions and higher global energy costs
Lower Sales Volumes: Despite higher pricing, the company experienced a decline in sales volumes in Q3 FY25 compared to Q3 FY24 due to lower beginning inventories, which constrained shipment activity
Increased Natural Gas Cost Pressure: The average natural gas cost rose from USD 2.10 per MMBtu in Q3 FY24 to USD 2.96 per MMBtu in Q3 FY25, increasing cost of sales and pressuring unit margins despite stronger pricing
CF Industries faces significant investment risk from volatility in global natural gas prices, which materially impacts production costs and profitability across its nitrogen product portfolio
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78.98 | 71.0 | 83.0 | 87.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Strong Financial Performance in 2025: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported robust financial results for the nine months and third quarter ended September 30, 2025. For the first nine months, the company generated net earnings of USD 1.05 billion, or USD 6.39 per diluted share, supported by EBITDA of USD 2.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA of USD 2.07 billion. Third-quarter performance remained strong, with net earnings of USD 353 million, or USD 2.19 per diluted share, alongside EBITDA of USD 671 million. These results highlight improved pricing conditions driven by strong nitrogen demand and supportive global market dynamics.
Operational Efficiency and Output Expansion: Operationally, the company maintained a strong safety record, achieving a 12-month rolling average recordable incident rate of 0.37. Ammonia production reached approximately 7.6 million tons in the first nine months of 2025 and 2.4 million tons in the third quarter, reflecting higher output compared to 2024. The company expects full-year production of roughly 10 million tons, supported by improved supply availability following weather-related outages in the prior year.
Revenue Growth Supported by Pricing and Demand: Net sales increased to USD 5.21 billion for the first nine months of 2025, compared to USD 4.41 billion in the prior-year period, driven by higher selling prices across all segments. Third-quarter 2025 net sales also grew to USD 1.66 billion from USD 1.37 billion in Q3 2024. Increased global nitrogen consumption, geopolitical supply constraints, and elevated global energy prices contributed to higher market clearing prices. However, third-quarter sales volumes declined due to lower beginning inventories.
Cost Pressures from Higher Natural Gas Prices: Cost of sales rose in both the nine-month and quarterly periods, primarily due to higher realized natural gas costs and increased sales volumes. The average natural gas cost increased to USD 3.34 per MMBtu for the first nine months of 2025, up from USD 2.38 per MMBtu in the same period of 2024. In the third quarter, the average natural gas cost rose to USD 2.96 per MMBtu compared to USD 2.10 per MMBtu in Q3 2024, reflecting continued cost inflation in feedstock inputs.
Strategic Advances in Low-Carbon Ammonia: CF Industries advanced its clean energy strategy by selling its first certified low-carbon ammonia cargoes at premium prices to customers in Africa and Europe. It also successfully earned expected 45Q tax credits and completed a nitric acid plant abatement project projected to reduce annual CO₂-equivalent emissions by more than 600,000 metric tons. These initiatives support the company’s long-term decarbonization and premium-product strategy.
Capital Investments and Joint Venture Contributions: The company continued to invest heavily in growth and decarbonization initiatives, recording capital expenditures of USD 347 million for the third quarter and USD 724 million for the first nine months of 2025. A significant portion of these expenditures relates to the Blue Point joint venture, formed with JERA and Mitsui for the production of low-carbon ammonia. Including partner-funded activities, full-year 2025 capital expenditures are expected to reach approximately USD 925 million.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation: CF Industries demonstrated strong shareholder value creation through substantial share repurchases. The company bought back 12.5 million shares for USD 1.0 billion in the first nine months of 2025, including 4.3 million shares for USD 364 million in the third quarter. It also completed its USD 3 billion repurchase program initiated in 2022, reducing outstanding shares by 19% since inception, and began executing its newly authorized USD 2 billion repurchase program effective through December 2029.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) at the current market price of USD 78.98, as on Nov 28, 2025 at 10:50 am PST.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Agricultural Inputs
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF CF Industries Holdings Inc |
2.63 2.93% | 92.47 | 14.08 | 13.59 | 2.58 | 2.96 | 2.80 | 5.90 |
| CTVA Corteva Inc |
1.77 2.42% | 74.97 | 30.23 | 15.58 | 1.89 | 1.30 | 2.10 | 13.87 |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd |
1.58 2.30% | 70.27 | 54.62 | 15.27 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.64 | 10.45 |
| MOS The Mosaic Company |
1.09 4.02% | 28.36 | 9.17 | 11.07 | 0.78 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 5.38 |
| YARIY Yara International ASA |
0.30 1.32% | 23.10 | 16.03 | 10.56 | 0.52 | 1.25 | 0.71 | 5.89 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on November 28, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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