Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov, 25 | VITL | Buy | USD 32.43 | USD 34.05 | USD 35.6 | 19 days | Closed |
5.00%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Vital Farms, Inc., a food company, provides pasture-raised products in the United States. It offers shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, and liquid whole eggs. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Significant Increase in Net Income and Earnings: Net income rose to USD 16.4 million in Q3 FY25, versus USD 7.4 million in Q3 FY24, while diluted EPS improved to USD 0.36, compared to USD 0.16 in the prior year period
Strong Revenue Expansion: In Q3 FY25, net revenue increased 37.2% to USD 198.9 million, compared to USD 145.0 million in Q3 FY24, driven by volume gains and favourable price/mix improvements
Sharp Increase in Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures rose significantly to USD 44.0 million for the 39 weeks ended Q3 FY25, compared to USD 10.5 million in Q3 FY24, driven by substantial investments in facility construction and production capacity
Decline in Operating Cash Flow: Net cash provided by operating activities declined to USD 27.9 million for the 39 weeks ended Q3 FY25, compared to USD 50.0 million in the 39 weeks ended Q3 FY24, reflecting higher working capital and investment needs
Vital Farms faces key risks from rising capital intensity, potential supply-chain disruptions, and sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations, which could impact margins and limit the predictability of future earnings growth
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32.43 | 29.5 | 34.05 | 35.6 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Record Net Revenue Growth and Strong Profitability: Vital Farms delivered exceptional financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, achieving record net revenue of USD 198.9 million, a 37.2% increase from the same period in fiscal 2024. The company’s gross margin improved to 37.7%, supported by strong volume gains and favourable price/mix benefits. Net income more than doubled year-over-year to USD 16.4 million, reflecting higher revenue leverage and disciplined cost management, while diluted EPS rose to USD 0.36 compared to USD 0.16 in the prior year period.
Operational Momentum and Scaling Capabilities: Operational execution remained a key highlight during the quarter. Vital Farms successfully expanded supply capacity by bringing online a third production line at Egg Central Station in Springfield and integrating a new ERP system aimed at enhancing operational efficiency. The company also broadened its family farm network, onboarding approximately 75 new farms, bringing the total to 575, thereby strengthening long-term supply resilience.
Enhanced Profitability Through Volume and Price Mix: The company’s profitability further benefited from accelerated consumer demand, improved pricing architecture, and scale efficiencies. Adjusted EBITDA increased to USD 27.4 million, representing 13.8% of net revenue, compared to 10.5% in the prior year quarter. Growth was driven by higher net revenue and margin gains, partially offset by strategic investments in labour, marketing, and distribution to support expansion initiatives.
Strong Balance Sheet and Strategic Capital Deployment: Vital Farms ended the quarter with a strong liquidity position, holding USD 145.1 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, with no outstanding debt. Capital expenditures rose to USD 44.0 million for the 39-week period, primarily due to continued investment in its Seymour, Indiana facility and additional capacity enhancements. Operating cash flow moderated to USD 27.9 million, compared with USD 50.0 million in the prior-year period, reflecting increased working capital requirements linked to expansion.
Upgraded Fiscal 2025 Outlook and Long-Term Growth Targets: Following robust third-quarter performance, the company increased its fiscal 2025 revenue outlook to at least USD 775 million, representing at least 28% growth versus fiscal 2024. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to at least USD 115 million, reflecting continued operating momentum. With construction progress at the Seymour facility on track and a structurally advantaged supply network, Vital Farms reiterated confidence in achieving its USD 1 billion net revenue target by 2027.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Vital Farms (NASDAQ: VITL) at the closing market price of USD 32.43, as on Nov 19, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Consumer Defensive Industry: Farm Products
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VITL Vital Farms Inc |
-0.84 3.06% | 26.60 | 46.98 | 208.33 | 2.22 | 5.44 | 2.02 | 23.31 |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company |
-0.66 0.97% | 67.42 | 14.60 | 10.52 | 0.28 | 1.12 | 0.40 | 8.49 |
| TSN Tyson Foods Inc |
-1.03 1.57% | 64.71 | - | 24.94 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 26.68 |
| BG Bunge Limited |
2.79 2.45% | 116.77 | 10.84 | 10.76 | 0.22 | 1.16 | 0.29 | 5.96 |
| MNHVF Mowi ASA |
- -% | 21.73 | 19.37 | 9.03 | 1.64 | 2.33 | 2.08 | 8.19 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on November 20, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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