Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov, 25 | RUN | Buy | USD 18.65 | USD 19.58 | USD 20.5 | 2 days | Closed |
8.90%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sunrun Inc. designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. In addition, the company offers battery storage along with solar energy systems; and sells services to commercial developers through multi-family and new homes. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Strong Improvement in Cash Generation: Cash Generation surged by USD 106 million, reflecting enhanced upfront monetization, improved unit economics, and optimized capital market execution, contributing directly to strengthened liquidity.
Significant Increase in Total Revenue: Sunrun delivered a robust year-on-year revenue expansion of USD 187.4 million, supported by substantial growth in System & Product Sales and increased contractual revenues from a larger subscriber base
Higher Interest Expense Impacting Profitability: Interest expense increased by USD 50.2 million, reflecting a higher non-recourse debt base and rising cost of capital, which continued to weigh on overall net profitability
Increase in Creation Costs per Subscriber Addition: Creation Costs per Subscriber increased by USD 1,485, driven primarily by higher storage hardware and related installation expenses as storage attachment rates rose
Sunrun’s long-term performance is exposed to risks related to rising interest rates, evolving regulatory structures (including net-metering reforms), and continued reliance on tax-equity and non-recourse financing markets for asset deployment
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.65 | 16.7 | 19.58 | 20.5 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Strong Growth in Customer Base and Energy Assets: Sunrun reported continued expansion in its customer footprint, ending Q3 FY25 with 1.14 million total customers, up from 1.02 million in the prior year, driven by sustained demand for residential solar and storage solutions . Subscribers reached 971,805, reflecting ongoing momentum in solar-as-a-service offerings. The company’s networked solar capacity grew to 8.19 GW, while networked storage capacity increased substantially to 3.66 GWh, underscoring Sunrun’s position as a leading distributed energy resource operator.
Solid Revenue Performance and Product Mix Shift: Total revenue increased significantly to USD 724.6 million in Q3 FY25 from USD 537.2 million in Q3 FY24, driven primarily by a sharp rise in System & Product Sales revenue, which more than tripled year-on-year to USD 233.0 million . Customer Agreements and Incentives revenue also expanded to USD 491.6 million, supported by a growing contracted subscriber base. The changing product mix reflects heightened demand for blended solar-plus-storage solutions and increased utility and grid-services activity.
Enhancement in Unit Economics and Value Creation: Subscriber Value improved to approximately USD 52,446, an 11% uplift from the previous year, supported by a higher storage attachment rate and favorable ITC incentives. Creation Costs per Subscriber rose modestly to USD 39,241, an increase of 4% year-over-year, primarily due to higher battery-related costs, while acquisition and overhead costs declined 5% per Subscriber . Net Subscriber Value consequently grew 38% annually, reaching USD 13,205, indicating strengthened unit-level profitability.
Robust Aggregate Value Creation and Cash Generation: Aggregate Subscriber Value reached USD 1.58 billion, representing a 10% annual increase, while Contracted Net Value Creation rose to USD 279 million, up 35% from Q3 FY24 . The company generated USD 108 million in Cash Generation during the quarter—its sixth consecutive positive quarter—reflecting disciplined capital deployment and improved upfront monetization. Sunrun reiterated its full-year cash generation outlook, supported by both retained assets and selective asset-sale structures introduced in FY25.
Scaling of Storage and Grid Services Capabilities: Sunrun continued to expand its storage portfolio, achieving a 70% storage attachment rate in Q3 FY25 versus 60% the previous year, materially enhancing system value and grid contribution . Over 217,000 battery systems are now installed, enabling dispatch programs across 17 markets that delivered 416 MW of grid capacity over the last year. These distributed resources position Sunrun as a growing independent power provider with expanding recurring revenue opportunities from grid-service programs.
Operational Discipline and Balance Sheet Strengthening: The company maintained cost discipline while reducing recourse debt by USD 17 million in Q3 and USD 66 million year-to-date. Total cash (including restricted) increased to USD 1.16 billion, and Net Earning Assets grew to USD 8.24 billion, supported by asset deployment and favorable financing execution, including multiple securitizations raising USD 1.4 billion in the quarter.
Continued Product Innovation and Customer Experience Initiatives: Operational execution remained strong as the company scaled its Flex product, with a ~40% take-rate in available markets, and expanded offerings such as add-on battery installations for existing solar customers. These initiatives enhanced customer satisfaction and contributed to stronger Net Promoter Scores, reinforcing Sunrun’s strategy of generating higher upfront margins and long-term recurring value.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) at the closing market price of USD 18.65, as on Nov 25, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Technology Industry: Solar
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN Sunrun Inc |
0.23 1.26% | 18.42 | - | 70.92 | 1.13 | 0.49 | 5.74 | -8.5813 |
| FSLR First Solar Inc |
7.12 3.09% | 237.66 | 16.61 | 9.35 | 5.36 | 2.72 | 5.21 | 11.40 |
| ENPH Enphase Energy Inc |
0.75 2.06% | 37.22 | 136.61 | 18.32 | 6.79 | 9.24 | 6.51 | 53.17 |
| NXT Nextracker Inc. Class A Common Stock |
3.96 3.43% | 119.56 | 16.44 | 12.44 | 2.71 | 15.50 | 2.46 | 15.56 |
| XISHY Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited |
- -% | 8.53 | 11.55 | 14.93 | 0.22 | 1.24 | 0.24 | 1.12 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on November 26, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 4: StockNextt reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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