Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep, 25 | OPEN | Buy | USD 5.23 | USD 5.7 | USD 5.9 | Same day | Closed |
13.38%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Opendoor Technologies Inc. operates a digital platform for residential real estate transactions in the United States. It buys and sells homes. The company's product offerings comprise sell to opendoor product that enables homeowners to sell their home directly to it and resell the home to a home buyer; list with opendoor product that allows customers to list their home on the MLS with opendoor and receive cash offer; and opendoor marketplace product that connects the home seller with an institutional or retail buyer. It also provides real estate brokerage, title insurance and settlement, and escrow services, as well as property and casualty insurance, real estate licenses, and construction services. Opendoor Technologies Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.
Reduced Net Loss: Narrowed GAAP net loss from USD (92) million in Q2 FY24 to USD (29) million in Q2 FY25, reflecting better cost discipline.
Adjusted EBITDA Turnaround: Improved from a loss of USD (5) million in Q2 FY24 to a profit of USD 23 million in Q2 FY25, marking the first positive quarter since 2022
Acquisition Volume Drop: Homes purchased decreased 63% year-over-year, from 4,771 in Q2 FY24 to 1,757 in Q2 FY25, signaling reduced pipeline replenishment
Contribution Profit Decline: Fell from USD 95 million in Q2 FY24 to USD 69 million in Q2 FY25, with contribution margin contracting from 6.3% to 4.4%
Opendoor faces heightened investment risk due to its reliance on volatile housing market dynamics—particularly weak buyer demand, declining acquisitions, and margin compression—which may delay the benefits of its platform transition
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.23 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Mission and Market Positioning: Opendoor remains committed to transforming the U.S. residential real estate market by simplifying an often opaque and lengthy process. The company leverages its proprietary data and AI-driven pricing intelligence to provide sellers with speed, certainty, and control through its flagship cash-offer product. Over the years, this approach has translated into strong customer satisfaction, as reflected in a Net Promoter Score of nearly 80 sustained over the last four years.
Strengthening Agent Partnerships: Initially perceived as a disruptive force, Opendoor has evolved into a collaborative partner for real estate agents. Approximately one-quarter of acquisitions now originate from agents introducing their clients directly to Opendoor. By deepening these relationships, the company seeks to create a platform where its success is aligned with that of agents. Programs such as Key Connections and the Key Agent iOS app empower agents with tools to conduct high-quality assessments and expand distribution channels.
Strategic Product Evolution: During the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Opendoor accelerated its transition from a product-centric to a platform-based model. The launch of Cash Plus exemplifies this strategy, offering sellers the convenience of a cash offer with the opportunity to capture market upside. This hybrid product reduces capital intensity for Opendoor, enhances downside protection, and places agents at the center of the customer journey, thereby balancing growth with prudent risk management.
Q2 2025 Performance Highlights: The company delivered revenue of USD 1.6 billion, surpassing guidance and reflecting a 5% increase over Q2 2024. Importantly, Opendoor reported its first quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA since 2022, reaching USD 23 million compared to a USD (5) million loss in the prior year period. Gross profit remained steady at USD 128 million, while Adjusted Operating Expenses declined significantly to USD 46 million from USD 100 million in Q2 2024, underscoring disciplined cost management.
Unit Economics and Margins: Despite revenue growth, contribution profit declined to USD 69 million from USD 95 million in Q2 2024, with contribution margin contracting from 6.3% to 4.4%. Similarly, Adjusted Gross Profit fell to USD 135 million compared to USD 154 million in the prior-year period. These margin pressures were primarily attributable to wider offer spreads and a deliberate slowdown in acquisitions, which dropped 63% year-over-year to 1,757 homes.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity: As of June 30, 2025, Opendoor held USD 789 million in unrestricted cash and maintained USD 7.8 billion in non-recourse borrowing capacity, of which USD 1.8 billion was drawn. The company also executed a USD 325 million convertible note issuance during the quarter, extending maturities to 2030 and adding USD 75 million in cash. Inventory levels stood at USD 1.5 billion, down from USD 2.2 billion in Q2 2024, reflecting a more cautious acquisition approach.
Outlook and Market Challenges: Looking ahead, management anticipates persistent weakness in the housing market, with affordability near all-time lows and clearance rates subdued. Guidance for Q3 2025 points to revenue of USD 800–USD 875 million, contribution profit of USD 22–USD 29 million, and an expected Adjusted EBITDA loss of USD (28)–USD (21) million. While near-term profitability remains challenged, Opendoor believes its transition to a distributed, agent-driven platform will position it for long-term durability and growth.
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Opendoor Technologies Inc. (Nasdaq: OPEN) at the current market price of USD 5.23, as on September 04,2025 at 7:05 am PDT.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Real Estate Industry: Real Estate Services
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc |
-0.455 6.76% | 6.28 | - | 40.32 | 0.23 | 1.65 | 0.44 | 339.60 |
| MSGNF Man Sang International Limited |
- -% | 0.04 | - | - | 844.75 | 3.95 | 3.76 | -1.3608 |
| CBRE CBRE Group Inc Class A |
-0.89 0.55% | 159.81 | 44.43 | 25.91 | 1.22 | 4.85 | 1.40 | 24.55 |
| CSGP CoStar Group Inc |
1.02 1.60% | 64.64 | 115.64 | 227.27 | 15.03 | 5.03 | 13.36 | 84.12 |
| CLNXF Cellnex Telecom S.A |
- -% | 30.30 | - | 208.33 | 6.31 | 1.67 | 10.46 | 15.58 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is September 04,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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