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Nebius Group N.V.

Recommendation: Buy

Entry Date Symbol Recommendation Entry Price (USD) Target 1 (USD) Target 2 (USD) Holding Duration Position Status Return(%)*
11 Aug, 25 NBIS Buy USD 68.78 USD 73.0 USD 77.0 29 days Closed 42.29%

*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.

Fundamentals

  • Previous Close 75.45
  • Market Cap0.00000M
  • Volume8474650
  • P/E Ratio-
  • Dividend Yield-%
  • Revenue TTM-
  • Revenue Per Share TTM-
  • Gross Profit TTM -
  • Diluted EPS TTM-

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Company Overview

Key Positives

Improved Adjusted EBITDA: Loss reduced to USD 21.0 million from USD 58.1 million — 64% improvement

Revenue Growth: USD 105.1 million in Q2 FY25 vs USD 14.5 million in Q2 FY24, +625% year-on-year

Key Negatives

Sharp Increase in Capex: USD 510.6 million in Q2 FY25 vs USD 159.0 million,+221% year-on-year

Higher Operating Cash Outflow: USD 167.7 million used in Q2 FY25 vs USD 99.0 million,+69% year-on-year

Key Investment Risks

Nebius’ aggressive infrastructure expansion and capital intensity may lead to sustained negative free cash flow, increasing dependence on external financing and exposing it to liquidity risk if market conditions or demand growth weaken

Recommendation Summary

Technical Summary

Entry Price Support* Target 1** Target 2**
68.78 63.0 73.0 77.0

Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt

*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.

**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.

Key Reasons for Buy

  • Strong ARR Guidance and Exceptional Revenue Growth: Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS), a prominent AI infrastructure provider, reported outstanding financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. The company raised its annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) guidance to a range of USD 900 million to USD 1.1 billion by the end of 2025. This upward revision was driven by accelerated growth momentum, with Q2 revenue reaching USD 105.1 million — a remarkable 625% year-on-year increase and 106% quarter-on-quarter rise. Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh attributed the success to increasing demand for AI infrastructure solutions, encompassing compute, software, and services.
  • Core Business Achieves Positive Adjusted EBITDA: The company’s core operations reached positive Adjusted EBITDA ahead of schedule, marking a key milestone in profitability improvement. Adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed significantly to USD 21.0 million in Q2 2025, representing a 64% improvement from the USD 58.1 million loss in Q2 2024. Management emphasized that the achievement reflects effective cost management and operational efficiency in its core AI infrastructure business, alongside strategic scaling to meet rapidly growing demand.
  • Massive Expansion Plans for AI Infrastructure Capacity: Nebius is actively pursuing expansion to secure over 1 gigawatt of power by the end of 2026, aiming to support the growing computational needs of its clients. This expansion aligns with the company’s long-term strategy to capture a larger share of the AI infrastructure market. The investment is expected to strengthen its capacity to serve advanced use cases across various industries, further enhancing its competitive position.
  • Operating Costs Increase with Scaling: Total operating costs rose to USD 216.3 million in Q2 2025, up 71% from USD 126.7 million in Q2 2024. While cost of revenues surged by 291% to USD 30.1 million, this represented an improved efficiency as a percentage of revenues, declining from 53% to 29%. Product development expenses grew 34% year-on-year to USD 42.8 million, while sales, general, and administrative expenses fell 10% to USD 68.2 million, reflecting some success in controlling overhead costs during rapid expansion. Depreciation and amortization increased sharply to USD 75.2 million due to heavy capital investments.
  • Significant Capital Expenditure and Cash Outflow: Nebius’ capital expenditures more than tripled, with property, plant, and equipment purchases totaling USD 510.6 million in Q2 2025 compared to USD 159.0 million in Q2 2024, a 221% increase. Cash used in operating activities also rose substantially, from USD 99.0 million in Q2 2024 to USD 167.7 million in Q2 2025. These figures reflect the company’s aggressive investment in infrastructure to support future revenue growth, but they also underline significant near-term cash burn.
  • Ownership and Equity Structure: As of June 30, 2025, Nebius had 238.7 million shares outstanding, excluding 123.3 million Class A shares held in treasury. The structure includes both Class A and Class B shares, with additional potential dilution from 7.5 million employee stock options (average exercise price of USD 87.83), 6.7 million unvested restricted share units, and specific equity awards linked to the Avride business. This equity structure provides the company flexibility for incentivizing talent but also represents potential shareholder dilution.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Buy’ rating has been given to Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) at the closing market price of USD 68.78, as of August 08, 2025.

Key Financials in Pictures

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Peer Comparison

Sector: Industry:

Company Change (USD) Price (USD) Trailing PE (x) Forward PE (x) Price Sales TTM (x) Price to Book Value (x)
NBIS
Nebius Group N.V.		 2.15 2.85% 77.60 - - - -

Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).

Disclosures:

Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is Aug 08,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Disclaimer :
This report has been issued by StockNextt which has an Ontario Business Identification Number 1000958347 and British Columbia registration Number FM1051529 is a trade name under Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. having Business Number 761925130BC0001. Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. and StockNextt are collectively referred to as “StockNextt”, “we”, “us”, and “our”. The website https://stocknextt.com and associated pages are published by StockNextt. The information in this report and on the StockNextt website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which StockNextt, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. StcokNextt has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its reports, newsletters, and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice. The information in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products. Our reports contain general recommendations for investing in securities and other financial products. StockNextt does not offer financial advice based upon your personal financial situation or goals, and we shall not be held liable for any investment or trading losses you may incur by using the opinions expressed in our reports, publications, market updates, news alerts and corporate profiles. StockNextt does not intend to exclude any liability which it is not permitted to exclude under applicable law or regulation. StockNextt’s general advice does not in any way endorse or recommend individuals, investment products or services for your personal financial situation. You should discuss your portfolios and the risk tolerance level appropriate for your personal financial situation, with a professional authorised financial planner and adviser. You should be aware that the value of any investment and the income from it can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount invested. Please also read our Terms and conditions for further information. Employees and/or associates of StockNextt and its related entities may hold an interest in the securities or other financial products covered in this report or on the StockNextt website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

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