Recommendation: Speculative Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (CAD) | Target 1 (CAD) | Target 2 (CAD) | Holding Duration | Position Status | Return(%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul, 25 | ORA | Speculative Buy | CAD 34.07 | CAD 35.8 | CAD 36.3 | 20 days | Closed |
8.39%
|
*Return(%) represent the percentage change between the entry price and exit price of the recommendation.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. It operates through Minosa Mine, Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, Corporate, Almas Mine, and Borborema Projects segments. The company primarily explores gold and copper in Brazil, Mexico, and Honduras. The company was formerly known as Aura Gold Inc. and changed its name to Aura Minerals Inc. in July 2007. The company was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Coconut Grove, Florida. Aura Minerals Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Northwestern Enterprises Limited.
Higher EBITDA Margin: 53.7% in Q1 2025 vs 40.0% in Q1 2024
Higher Gross Margin: 48.5% in Q1 2025 vs 35.3% in Q1 2024
Higher Debt to Equity Ratio: 3.51x in Q1 2025 vs 0.17x in Q1 2024
Lower Quick Ratio: 0.94x in Q1 2025 vs 1.21x in Q1 2024
Volatility in the commodity price, Regulatory risks, Trade tariffs, Inflationary pressures, Lower cash flows, etc.
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1** | Target 2** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34.07 | 32.3 | 35.8 | 36.3 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
**Target prices may vary by ±0.5% depending on market volatility.
Decent Pricing Environment Boosting Financial Performance: Despite lower production and sales volumes, ORA delivered decent financial results, due to higher gold and copper prices. Net revenue increased by 23% YoY to USD 162 mn. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 53% YoY to USD 81.5 mn, marking the third consecutive quarterly record. ORA also reported a 17% adjusted net income margin, up from 9% last year.
Temporary Production Dip, But Guidance Intact: Total production decreased by 10% QoQ to 60,087 GEO, driven by mine sequencing, maintenance downtime, and lower ore grades across most sites. However, these were all expected, and the company maintained its full-year guidance of 266,000 - 300,000 GEO, suggesting confidence in healthy quarters ahead.
Dividend Signals Decent Returns: ORA stands out for its decent shareholder returns, with a Q1 2025 dividend of USD 0.40 per share and a last-twelve-month yield of 11% including buybacks. This consistent payout reflects decent free cash flow generation and management’s commitment to returning capital. Despite rising costs in some operations, healthy margins and robust gold prices support the sustainability of dividends.
Considering the expected valuation upside, decent revenue growth, improving margins, Borborema ramp-up, high gold prices, production visibility, current trading levels and key business risks, a ‘Speculative Buy’ recommendation has been given on the stock at the last closing price of CAD 34.07, as on July 21, 2025.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Gold
| Company | Change (CAD) | Price (CAD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA Aura Minerals Inc |
- -% | - | - | 10.98 | 0.73 | 14.61 | 3.74 | 25.42 |
| AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited |
2.61 1.13% | 233.59 | 26.56 | 19.53 | 11.38 | 3.78 | 8.71 | 13.87 |
| ABX Barrick Gold Corp |
0.75 1.25% | 60.75 | 20.14 | 13.57 | 5.52 | 2.33 | 4.18 | 7.55 |
| WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp |
1.42 0.90% | 159.91 | 54.73 | 36.90 | 36.32 | 6.45 | 29.32 | 39.95 |
| FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation |
1.53 0.53% | 288.75 | 45.70 | 35.84 | 37.93 | 6.43 | 31.66 | 33.82 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 21, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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