Recommendation: Buy
| Entry Date | Symbol | Recommendation | Entry Price (USD) | Target 1 (USD) | Target 2 (USD) | Holding Duration | Potential Upside* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr, 25 | CTVA | Buy | USD 57.73 | USD 60.61 | USD 62.0 | 4 days | 7.4% |
*Potential Upside (%) indicates the expected percentage increase from the Entry Price to the Target 2 Price.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Corteva, Inc. operates in the agriculture business. It operates through two segments, Seed and Crop Protection. The Seed segment develops and supplies advanced germplasm and traits that produce optimum yield for farms. It offers trait technologies that enhance resistance to weather, disease, insects, and herbicides used to control weeds, as well as food and nutritional characteristics. This segment also provides digital solutions that assist farmer decision-making with a view to optimize product selection, and maximize yield and profitability. The Crop Protection segment offers products that protect against weeds, insects and other pests, and diseases, as well as enhances crop health above and below ground through nitrogen management and seed-applied technologies. This segment provides herbicides, insecticides, nitrogen stabilizers, and pasture and range management herbicides. It serves agricultural input industry. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Corteva, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Fourth-quarter Operating EBITDA grew 36%, reflecting strong margin improvement and cost discipline
Free cash flow surged 40% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, supporting $1.5 billion in shareholder returns
Seed segment Q4 EBITDA fell 36%, despite volume growth, due to cost inflation and unfavorable pricing
Crop Protection net sales declined 5% for the full year, driven by a 5% price drop and adverse currency effects
Corteva’s profitability and growth remain vulnerable to adverse currency fluctuations and ongoing pricing pressure in the Latin American Crop Protection market
| Entry Price | Support* | Target 1 | Target 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57.73 | 53.0 | 60.61 | 62.0 |
Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: StockNextt
*Support can be considered as an indicative stop-loss, and if prices move below that level on closing basis individuals may evaluate exiting the position depending on their risk appetite, previous holdings, and other factors considered. The support and resistance levels may need to be re-evaluated within 4-6 weeks’ time frame depending on the stock price movements from the date of recommendation on the stock.
Financial Overview and Sales Performance: In fiscal year 2024, Corteva reported net sales of $16.9 billion, representing a 2% decline compared to 2023. However, organic sales showed a modest increase of 1%, supported by gains in North America, Latin America, and Asia Pacific, which were partially offset by declines in EMEA. GAAP income from continuing operations was $863 million, translating to earnings per share (EPS) of $1.22. Operating EBITDA reached $3.4 billion and Operating EPS was $2.57, supported by strong cost management and continued operational execution.
Segmental Performance – Seed Business: The Seed segment demonstrated resilience with net sales of $9.5 billion for the year, a 1% increase year-over-year. Organic growth stood at 4%, driven by a 3% price increase and a 1% volume gain. Key contributors included an increase in Safrinha corn acreage in Brazil and market share gains in North America. Despite unfavorable currency effects and a minor portfolio impact, Seed segment operating EBITDA grew 5% to $2.2 billion, with EBITDA margin improving by 90 basis points. However, in Q4, although Seed net sales rose 8%, operating EBITDA declined 36%, impacted by higher costs, price pressure, and R&D investment.
Segmental Performance – Crop Protection Business: Crop Protection net sales totaled $7.4 billion in 2024, down 5% from 2023, primarily due to a 5% price decline and a 3% currency headwind, partly offset by a 3% volume increase. The pricing pressure was attributed largely to competitive dynamics in Latin America. Full-year operating EBITDA for the segment decreased 7% to $1.27 billion, with a 45 basis point contraction in margin. In Q4, however, the segment saw a strong rebound, with sales up 6% and EBITDA up 73% year-over-year, supported by raw material cost deflation, productivity gains, and demand for new technologies.
Regional Highlights: Corteva’s performance varied across regions. North America saw steady growth, with Seed sales up 5% and Crop Protection down 7%. EMEA was notably weak with full-year net sales down 7% overall, affected by adverse weather and destocking. Latin America posted mixed results: while full-year sales declined 3%, Q4 showed strong volume-driven growth, particularly in Crop Protection. Asia Pacific experienced marginal declines for the year but rebounded in the fourth quarter, reflecting improved volume in both segments.
Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: The company reported strong cash flow generation in 2024, with $2.3 billion in operating cash flow from continuing operations—up 27% from the previous year—and free cash flow of $1.7 billion, marking a 40% improvement. These results enabled Corteva to return $1.5 billion to shareholders. The solid cash performance highlights the company's disciplined financial management amid challenging market dynamics.
2025 Guidance and Strategic Outlook: Looking ahead, Corteva has provided a positive outlook for 2025, with expected net sales between $17.2 billion and $17.6 billion, indicating 3% growth at the midpoint. Operating EBITDA is projected between $3.6 billion and $3.8 billion, and Operating EPS is anticipated to range from $2.70 to $2.95 per share, reflecting a 10% increase at the midpoint for both. The company also plans to repurchase approximately $1 billion of its shares in 2025, underlining its confidence in long-term value creation. While macroeconomic uncertainty and currency fluctuations remain concerns, Corteva sees improving agricultural fundamentals, including rising global grain prices and robust demand for advanced agricultural technologies
Considering recent key business, financial updates, current trading levels, and key business risks, a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on Corteva, Inc (NYSE: CTVA) at the current market price of USD 57.73, as on April 11, 2025 at 07:05 AM PDT.
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Agricultural Inputs
| Company | Change (USD) | Price (USD) | Trailing PE (x) | Forward PE (x) | Price Sales TTM (x) | Price to Book Value (x) | Enterprise Value to Revenue (x) | Enterprise Value to EBITDA (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVA Corteva Inc |
0.46 0.74% | 61.52 | 30.23 | 15.58 | 1.89 | 1.30 | 2.10 | 13.87 |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd |
0.52 0.98% | 53.60 | 12.97 | 10.67 | 0.92 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 6.80 |
| CF CF Industries Holdings Inc |
1.19 1.57% | 77.08 | 14.08 | 13.59 | 2.58 | 2.96 | 2.80 | 5.90 |
| MOS The Mosaic Company |
0.88 3.15% | 28.83 | 9.17 | 11.07 | 0.78 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 5.38 |
| YARIY Yara International ASA |
0.31 2.01% | 15.72 | 16.03 | 10.56 | 0.52 | 1.25 | 0.71 | 5.89 |
Data Powered by EOD Historical Data (“EODHD”).
Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.
Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is April 11,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.
Target: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Target 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Target 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
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